Home Loans Albuquerque Blog

Monday, November 10, 2008

My Very Own First Podcast!!!
Current mood: giddy
Category: Jobs, Work, Careers

OMG I am so excited and wanted to share with you my first ever produced PodCast.

Let me know what you think!

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http://media.libsyn.com/media/smallbiz/BNI_Powercast-Melinda_Potcher.mp3

it takes a while to load - here’s another link as well;

BNI Powercast: Melinda Potcher

http://www.smallbizamerica.com/sbb/detail/bni-powercast-melinda-potcher/

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Currently listening :
Got to Be Real: The Best of Cheryl Lynn
By Cheryl Lynn
Release date: 1996-06-04

Friday, October 17, 2008

From The Local Organic Farmer - Words of Wisdom
Current mood: enlightened
Category: Jobs, Work, Careers

..TR>
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October 16th, 2008
..TR> Los Poblanos Organics

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Our Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Ok, if I see another picture of some dude on Wall Street with his head in his hands about to cry or looking into space like he has just seen the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, I am going to scream. Enough already. We get it. The stock market is in the tanks. But here is the frustrating part.

We, and I mainly point the finger at the media right now, have created a self-fulfilling prophecy. With all this attention on Wall Street, we are perpetuating its downturn. And it all boils down to one phrase, consumer confidence.

Sure stocks rely on earnings and quarterly reports, but as a whole, they are dependent on what the confidence of the consumer is. Take Amazon for example during the ’90’s. Amazon would never post a profit. Every dollar they earned they sunk back into the company. Always in the red. But their stock price (through the ’90’s) was going through the roof. Why? Because people had confidence in the company. Not rooted in anything, but just a good feeling. So stock went up.

Is our economy (nationally) in trouble? Sure it is, but this trouble has been here for over a year. This is nothing new. The only thing new to the whole scenario is a word called “meltdown.” If you use terms like “meltdown” too much, people might start to believe it. But this stubborn Norwegian is not going to. I refuse. And here is why.

New Mexico is an island in many cases. When the economy nationally shoots through the roof, we lag behind. When the national economy falls through the floor, we stay afloat. We stay out of the riff raff for the most part because we have solid economic drivers and players in NM. Los Alamos Labs. Sandia Labs. Kirtland AF Base. Univ. of NM. APS. Intel. Among others.

We have always been very stable here. Yes, missing the high time of the peaks, but to compensate we miss the valleys too. Much of this is due to our strength in diversity. NM is not a one industry state. Thankfully. And our banking system is one of the most solid in the country.

So if that is all good news locally, then what is the problem? The problem, as I see it, is that the national manure sandwich is starting to affect our local confidence in the local market.

And I will use LPO as our example because it is obviously the business I know best. As I previously noted, the national economy has been having problems for over a year now. Throughout that though, LPO was able to grow our CSA membership over 50%. A sign that our community was still doing well and supporting business.

Then the stock market started to slip, trip, and panic set in. People began holding on to their wallets to see what the economy is going to do before venturing back out into the world. So in the last two weeks our renewals drop 20% (not members, just those renewing). Not a good sign.

LPO is small enough and our over-head low enough that it is not that detrimental for us. But it makes me worry about other businesses. Most businesses cannot withstand a 20% loss in sales for very long before going under.

Cash fuels our world. Fuels our economy. And not cash in a greedy way, but in a necessity way. With no exchange of cash, the wheels of the economy stop moving. Fewer sales equate to fewer employees needed. Fewer jobs mean fewer paychecks to pay the rent/mortgage. The more bad loans, the harder it is to get credit. And without credit, the economy stops.

Now, I am not trying to give a “get out there and shop” lecture. We all have to be smart financially right now. But what I am trying to say is that we, as a community, need to be realistic and do some honest evaluation. If one has a stable job, and is not overly leveraged in the stock market for short term needs, things will be fine.

The economy, and our consumer confidence, will bounce back. It always does. This is not economic Armageddon, and the sooner we realize it, the sooner we will get back on track.

At least that is how I see it, Farmer Monte

Copyright ©2007 by Los Poblanos Organics.
All rights reserved, but please feel free to forward this to anyone you think may enjoy it.
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Currently listening :
Jordin Sparks
By Jordin Sparks
Release date: 2007-11-20

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

What Affect Does the Bailout Have for You, The Consumer?
Current mood: confident
Category: Jobs, Work, Careers

I got a great question from a client today about what affect the announcements from the federal government agreeing to back all bank lending would have on the consumer. Here is the question and my answer.

Good Stuff!

Greetings Melinda -

What effect does today’s announcements have in lending decisions?

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were among banks that soared in New York trading after the U.S. government said it would invest in nine of the country’s biggest financial firms and guarantee debt they issue.

Shares of Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. also climbed on the plan, in which the government will spend $125 billion to buy preferred stock in the companies.

….It’s a good thing, it’s what needs to happen, it will allow the markets to start functioning again,” said Ralph Cole, a vice president for research at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc. in Portland, Oregon, which oversees $2.7 billion including shares in JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman. ….We’ll know if it’s working when we see if overnight rates go down and banks start lending to each other.”

Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo will each receive $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, while Morgan Stanley and Goldman will get $10 billion. Bank of New York Mellon Corp. will receive about $3 billion and State Street Corp. will get about $2 billion, the companies said today.

The investments are part of a $250 billion plan to put capital into U.S. financial institutions, which have been burdened by bad loans and rising borrowing costs.

Michael

Michael~

This announcement has to do more with money that banks lend each other on a national and international platform then us down at the consumer level.

Best,

Melinda Potcher

Mortgage Broker

Trinity Mortgage, LLC

(505) 259-6397 cell

(505) 214-LEND fax

melinda@trinitymtg.biz

http://www.homeloansalbuquerque.com

Currently listening :
The Information
By Beck
Release date: 2006-10-03

Don’t believe or buy in to the hype when the media says that there isn’t any credit available out there! It’s just not true!

I have 5 loans I am working on presently, including;

an $800k refi

4 homebuyers looking for properties that are preapproved for loans ranging from $142,000 to $270,000.

Everybody wants a “smokin deal”, and believe me they are out there!

Rates are currently holding at 6% on a 30 day fixed conventional or government loan (FHA/VA).

3% down is all you need. A family member, employer or friend can also gift you down payment or closing costs. A seller can contribute 6% (STILL) to your closing costs.

Additionally, for entrepreneurs and small business owners, I have been visiting the local banks this week to confirm that they have money to lend to startup businesses and they assured me they are ready and willing to lend.

My phone has been ringing a lot w/ 5 new applications last week and one so far this week. My realtors phones are ringing too.

So don’t buy the gloom & doom out there, folks - it IS what YOU make of it.

Have a great week, and call me w/ any questions.

best,

Melinda Potcher

Mortgage Maven

http://www.HomeLoansAlbuquerque.com

Currently listening :
Where The Light Is:John Mayer Live In Los Angeles
By John Mayer
Release date: 2008-07-01

Monday, September 29, 2008

Current mood: contemplative
Category: News and Politics

Subject: FW: Worth reading!

Mortgage Crisis: The REAL Blame By Drew Zahn© 2008 World Net Daily

Stan J. Liebowitz

While many pundits are pointing to corporate greed and a lack of government regulation as the cause for the American mortgage and financial crisis, some analysts are saying it wasn’t too little government intervention that cased the mortgage meltdown, but too much, in the form of activists compelling the government to pressure Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae into unsound – though politically correct – lending practices.

“Home mortgages have been a political piñata for many decades,” writes Stan J. Liebowitz, economics professor at the University of Texas atDallas, in a chapter of his forth coming book, Housing America: Building out of a Crisis. Liebowitz puts forward an explanation that he admits is “not consistent with the nasty-subprime-lender hypothesis currently considered to be the cause of the mortgage meltdown.”In a nutshell, Liebowitz contends that the federal government over the last 20 years pushed the mortgage industry so hard to get minority home ownership up, that it undermined the country’s financial foundation to achieve its goal.”In an attempt to increase homeownership, particularly by minorities and the less affluent, an attack on underwriting standards was undertaken by virtually every branch of the government since the early 1990s,” Liebowitz writes. “The decline in mortgage underwriting standards was universally praised as ‘innovation’ in mortgage lending by regulators, academic specialists, (government-sponsored enterprises) and housing activists. He continues, “Although a seemingly noble goal, the tool chosen to achieve this goal was one that endangered the entire mortgage enterprise.” “As homeownership rates increased there was self-congratulation all around,” Liebowitz writes. “The community of regulators, academic specialists, and housing activists all reveled in the increase in homeownership.”

An article in the Los Angeles Times from the late ’90s praised the sudden surge in homeownership among minorities, calling it “one of the hidden success stories of the Clinton era.” John Lott, a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland, however, claimed in a Fox News article yesterday that the success came ata great price. According to Lott, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston produced a manual in the early ’90s that warned mortgage lenders to no longer deny urban and lower-income minority applicants on such “outdated” criteria as credit history, down payment or employment income. Furthermore, claims Lott, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged and praised lenders – like Countrywide and Bear Stearns – for adopting the slackened policies toward minority applicants. “Given these lending practices mandated by the Fed and encouraged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” writes Lott, “the resulting financial problems for financial institutions such as Countrywide and Bear Stearns are not too surprising.”

Liebowitz’ contention that lenders were under pressure to loosen their standards for racial and political goals was confirmed years ago by the companies at the heart of today’s crisis: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A New York Times article from Sept. 1999 states that Fannie Mae had been under increasing pressure from the Clinton administration to expand mortgage loans among low- and moderate-income people and that the corporation loosened its lending requirements to comply. An ominous paragraph of the article reads, “In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980s.”

Liebowitz likewise predicted in a 1998 paper the risk of sacrificing sound financial policy for social activism.”After the warm fuzzy glow of ‘flexible underwriting standards’ has worn off,” Liebowitz wrote, “we may discover that they are nothing more than standards that led to bad loans. It will be ironic and unfortunate if minority applicants wind up paying a very heavy price for a misguided policy based on a badly mangled idea.”

And though some have speculated that lenders in the ’90s dove into sub-prime mortgages in an effort to gouge new markets, the president and chief operating officer of Freddie Mac in 1999, David Glenn, confessed his company was pushed by a federal agenda. “The mortgage industry intends to pursue minorities with greater intensity as federal regulators turn up the heat to increase home ownership,” Glenn said in his remarks at the annual convention of the Mortgage Banker Association of America. “The federal government in the meantime has increased pressure on lenders to seek out minorities, as well as low-income groups and borrowers with poor credit histories,” Glenn said.

Fannie Mae recently reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development tocommit half its business to low- and moderate-income borrowers. That means half the mortgages bought by Fannie Mae would be from those income brackets.

A few years later, when Greg Mankiw, chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, voiced a warning about weakened underwriting standards, Congress rebuffed him as well.

The Wall Street Journal quoted Congressman Barney Frank, D-Mass., in 2003 as criticizing Greg Mankiw “because he is worried about the tiny little matter of safety and soundness rather than ‘concern about housing.’” Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, rejected a Bush administration and Congressional Republican plan for regulating the mortgage industry in 2003, saying, “These two entities – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – are not facing any kind of financial crisis.” According to aNew York Times article, Frank added, “The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.”

Currently listening :
Yes I’m Ready
By Barbara Mason
Release date: 1997-10-08

Friday, September 26, 2008

Recently, my friend & associate, Realtor Blythe Camenson of Century 21 Camco Realty and I decided to do a direct mailing to the high-end rental market here in Albuquerque. We received one very interesting response from one of our target market and I’d like to share that with you as well as my personal opinion on the whole she-bang. here it is;

In a message dated 9/25/2008 5:47:33 P.M. Mountain Daylight Time, **** writes:

Hi,

I received one of your cards in the mail living at Broadstone. Thank you for it, but I like to say your card is misleading, in today’s housing market/economic conditions and possible worldwide depression coming upon us, renting is the safest, and best thing that can be done. Albuquerque homes are way overpriced and who knows by the end of the year what is going to shake out. So for the foreseeable future, I will be spending 1200 dollars a month on a safe bet, my apartment.

Thank you,

And now, Blythe’s response;

Hello!

Actually, sorry, but a lot of experts would have to disagree with you, What I said on the card stands. Renting is throwing away money…you’ll never get that back. It’s not a safe bet. It’s no bet at all.

Albuquerque was never hit with that housing bubble so there was no bubble to burst. Compare Albuquerque to the rest of the country and we’re in a really good situation. In fact, we were voted by Forbes as the 1 city whose prices are going to increase in the next year or two. I’ve pasted that article for you at the end of the email. Interest rates are at an all time low. There are plenty of good deals out there and now has never been a better time to buy. Really. You could start building equity right now.

If you’d like to talk more about this or meet up with me, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. I’d love to hear your reaction to the article. Check out the Forbes links.

Thanks for contacting me!

Blythe

Blythe Camenson, Realtor
Century 21 Camco Realty
8300 Carmel Ave NE, Ste. 302
Albuquerque, NM 87122
Cell Phone (505) 450-7448
Office 505-292-2021
Fax: 505-292-5686

Referrals are the greatest compliment I can receive. Please don’t keep me a secret. Please tell your friends, family, and business associates about my first-class service.

Where Home Prices Are Likely To Rise
Matt Woolsey, 08.25.08,

Believe it or not, in the future people will be buying and selling homes. Some of them will even make a profit. It’s not so crazy an idea. Consider Albuquerque, N.M. The mid-sized Southwestern city has experienced housing price declines since a peak in the third quarter of 2007, job growth has been flat, and housing starts are expected to fade by 45% through the end of 2008. Nevertheless, it’s a city that home builders and economists are bullish about for 2010 and beyond.

In Depth: Where Home Prices Are Likely To Rise

Video: Where Home Prices May Get A Boost

According to analysts at Moody’s Economy.com, Albuquerque’s job growth through 2012 is projected at an average annual rate of 1.6%, fueled in large part by its low costs and local business expansion. Housing starts in the city are expected to reverse course in 2009, growing by 26.6%, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). This means builders have high hopes for 2010 and 2011, when those homes will be completed and on the market.

It’s the same story in several other cities: more tough times to come in the short term, but potential for a recovery and a rise in prices in the long term.

Behind The Numbers
To determine where house prices are expected to rise next, Forbes.com looked at projections for housing starts from the NAHB and job-growth figures from Moody’s Economy.com, for the 100 largest metro areas in the U.S. The estimates are based on the cost structures of business in the respective cities and the composition of the local economies.

Housing start projections from the NAHB may seem like wishful thinking. Trade-association economists often view their own industry through rose-colored lenses. The National Association of Realtors (NAR), for example, has developed a reputation for its positive outlooks despite negative numbers But the NAHB data are filled with laggards, signifying some realistic thinking. Housing starts in Las Vegas are expected to drop by 32% in 2008 and actually get worse in 2009, falling by a further 43%. In overbuilt, highly leveraged Phoenix, starts are predicted to fall 50% this year and descend another 11% more in 2009.

Because houses take six months to two years to build, that means home builders aren’t expecting profits in the Vegas or Phoenix market until past 2011.

“These are some of the most overbuilt markets,” says Robert Denk, an economist at the NAHB. “There are some markets that got really out of hand and they’re going to be in trouble for a couple years still.” He cites Cape Coral, Fla., as the poster child of overbuilding exuberance. “They built 10 years of housing in two years.”

The prognosis isn’t as bad elsewhere.

And Then Blythe Continued;

From: BlytheCentury21@aol.com

To: ****

Sent: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 9:43 am

Subject: PS

Hi again

It occurred to me to ask you what about buying concerns you the most? Are you afraid that you’d lose you down payment somehow or that you wouldn’t recoup it when it came time to sell? I’m just trying to understand your concerns, so I can address them.

$1200 is a lot to pay in rent. You must have a pretty good career. Have you been renting for a long time? Did you ever own property? I’m wondering if you had a bad experience.

Anyway, let me know what you think.

Blythe Camenson

Century 21 Camco

450-7448

To Which The Tenant Replied;

Hi, Owned a home in Tucson, and sold it in 2007 and my partner and I moved here, have good enough career and excellent credit scores. Paying a mortgage on a depreciating asset like a home is worse than renting. And these homes here in Albuquerque are way over priced, I know two couples in Broadstone who sold there homes here in Albuquerque put the money in the bank and are just going to rent, they wanted out of the housing market , and I don’t see any reason to get it in on it. THe economy is going to go south and people are going to be hurting becuase there is going to be a depression coming, and I feel safer renting in today’s age. But thank you, you do seem nice.

And Then Blythe Made The Mistake of Asking Me for my opinion;

From: BlytheCentury21@aol.com[SMTP:BLYTHECENTURY21@AOL.COM]

> Sent: Friday, September 26, 2008 9:12:21 AM

> To: Potcher, Melinda

> Subject: Fwd: PS

> Auto forwarded by a Rule

>

What would you say to deflect this?

And Let’s Say I’m Having a Tough Morning, and Chose Not To Mince My Words;

I guess my response would be;

“It seems to me that you are interested in having a conversation about this or you wouldn’t have gone so far out of your way to find my email and address these concerns with me. Thank you for voicing your opinions. Just for kicks - you say your friends sold their properties here and deposited their proceeds in the bank. Doesn’t this conflict with your premise that housing is a depreciating asset? If your friends made money when they sold their home, then the opposite occurred - they realized appreciation. You seem nice also, and if you would ever like to continue this conversation I would love to support my premises with actual facts that supercede your conjecture and belief in media “hype”.”

Melinda Potcher

Mortgage Broker

Trinity Mortgage, LLC

(505) 259-6397 cell

(505) 214-LEND fax

melinda@trinitymtg.biz

http://www.homeloansalbuquerque.com

Referrals are the greatest compliment I can receive. Please don’t keep me a secret. Please tell your friends, family and business associates about my world-class service.

Currently listening :
@#%&*! Smilers (Special Edition)
By Aimee Mann
Release date: 2008-06-03

Monday, September 08, 2008

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Takeover by Federal Government
Current mood: busy
Category: Jobs, Work, Careers

On Sunday, the US Treasury announced that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) was taking over management control and day-to-day operations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and would be acting as a conservator for the firms.

Today, many analysts are lauding the takeover as a positive step towards stabilizing the mortgage market because now Freddie and Fannie mortgage debt will have the full backing of the US Treasury. Just as important, this move ensures that affordable home loans will continue to be made available to American home buyers.

What does this mean? You can be assured that it’s business as usual.

This development doesn’t change my operations and I will continue to help my clients and realtors find the best loans. As with any change like this, I anticipate updates will be coming from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac regularly over the next few weeks and months.

As I receive additional updates from the firms, I will be sure to share them with you. Also know that I am here to answer any questions you have.

As your Mortgage Maven in the Land of Enchantment, I look forward to the opportunities that this development may bring.

Melinda Potcher

Mortgage Maven

http://www.HomeLoansAlbuquerque.com

Melinda@trinitymtg.biz

(505) 259-6397

Currently listening :
Everybody Got Their Something
By Nikka Costa
Release date: 2001-05-22

Surprise!
Current mood: ebullient
Category: ebullient Jobs, Work, Careers

Where U.S. home prices are likely to rise
Remember a time when the value of your house always went up? There are some bright spots across the country where sellers may soon begin to feel some relief.

By Matt Woolsey, Forbes

Believe it or not, in the future, people will be buying and selling homes. Some of them will even make a profit.
It’s not so crazy an idea. Consider Albuquerque, N.M. The midsized Southwestern city has experienced housing price declines since a peak in the third quarter of 2007; job growth has been flat; and housing starts are expected to fade by 45% through the end of 2008. Nevertheless, it’s a city that home builders and economists are bullish about for 2010 and beyond.

According to analysts at Moody’s Economy.com, Albuquerque’s job growth through 2012 is projected at an average annual rate of 1.6%, fueled in large part by its low costs and local business expansion. Housing starts in the city are expected to reverse course in 2009, growing by 26.6%, according to the National Association of Home Builders. This means builders have high hopes for 2010 and 2011, when those homes will be completed and on the market.

It’s the same story in several other cities: more tough times to come in the short term, but potential for a recovery and a rise in prices in the long term.

Behind the numbers
To determine where house prices are expected to rise next, Forbes.com looked at projections for housing starts from the NAHB and job-growth figures from Moody’s Economy.com for the 100 largest metro areas in the United States. The estimates are based on the cost structures of business in the respective cities and the composition of the local economies.
Housing-start projections from the NAHB may seem like wishful thinking. Trade-association economists often view their own industry through rose-colored lenses. The National Association of Realtors, for example, has developed a reputation for its positive outlooks despite negative numbers.

But the NAHB data are filled with laggards, signifying some realistic thinking. Housing starts in Las Vegas are expected to drop by 32% in 2008 and actually get worse in 2009, falling by a further 43%. In overbuilt, highly leveraged Phoenix, starts are predicted to fall 50% this year and 11% more in 2009.

More from MSN & Forbes.com

Because houses take six months to two years to build, that means home builders aren’t expecting profits in the Vegas or Phoenix market until past 2011.

“These are some of the most overbuilt markets,” says Robert Denk, an economist at the NAHB. “There are some markets that got really out of hand and they’re going to be in trouble for a couple years still.” He cites Cape Coral, Fla., as the poster child of overbuilding exuberance. “They built 10 years of housing in two years.”

The prognosis isn’t as bad elsewhere.

Texas on the rise?
Centex, one of Texas’ largest homebuilders, has been stung by overextension into Michigan and Colorado, as well as big bets on the vacation-home market in Texas. In July, the builder reported losses of $150 million. There’s a bright spot, however.

San Antonio and Austin, Texas, have largely avoided the real-estate crash, with price increases of 2.5% and 4.1% in year-over-year terms, respectively, according to the NAR. This is driven in part by the fact that the two markets are expecting building slowdowns of 24.7% and 28.2%, respectively, through the end of the year, as home builders are bearish about the remainder of 2008 and 2009 in the sales market or cannot find financing. Builders as a whole are binding their wounds and cutting back production, adopting a wait-and-see approach to home prices in the coming year.

But for the start of 2010 and into 2011, builders expect a more vibrant market for sellers. For homes built in 2009, which would come off the conveyor belt in 2010 and 2011, the NAHB forecasts a 9.6% increase in Austin and a 20.9% increase in San Antonio above 2008 levels. Much of that has to do with expected job growth in all nonfarm sectors.

Recovery in obvious places
At this point, it’s clear the subprime contagion won’t be contained in the next year, based on the acceleration of home price drops and foreclosures nationwide. But when the bad vintages of loans finally come off the books, the cities where prices are expected to rebound are largely those with vibrant economies.

logic is pretty straightforward,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “People will spend as much on housing as their income will allow them. House prices are very closely tied to household income over the long run when you look at business cycles.”
This means that recovery is likely in the cards for even the hardest-hit spots. Cities such as Atlanta and Colorado Springs, Colo., may be reeling from high defaults and foreclosures, but from 2007 through 2012 their economies are expected to experience 2% and 1.6% average annual job growth. That means more in-migration and more money in the economy, factors that help businesses grow and profit — and put more money in residents’ pockets.

As local economies grow bigger and more dynamic, land values increase because the value of what can be produced on that land increases. When land prices go up, home values go up.

Home prices moving up; it sort of makes one nostalgic.

The top 5 American cities where home prices are likely to rise

1.Albuquerque, N.M.

2.Charlotte, N.C.

3.San Antonio

4.Portland, Ore.

5.Austin, Texas

Realtor Weekly Update
Current mood: focused
Category: Jobs, Work, Careers

Well summer’s ended unofficially. I hope you had great holiday weekend. Here is the latest news on the mortgage markets from Bankrate.com with their weekly survey and the Rate Trend Index as of September 4th. Remember the August jobs report is due out Friday this could have a large impact on rates, over the next few days.

Mortgage rates down for 3rd week

By Holden Lewis Bankrate.com

Fixed mortgage rates fell for a third week in a row as oil prices dropped.

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 5 basis points, to 6.55 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.5 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.74 percent.

The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 5 basis points, to 6.09 percent, and the 30-year, fixed-rate jumbo, for larger loans, dropped 9 basis points, to 7.52 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage went the other way, rising 2 basis points, to 6.29 percent.

It was good news for mortgage shoppers when Hurricane Gustav didn’t significantly damage oil and natural gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Most production had been halted just in case, and the federal government pledged to release oil from emergency reserves to cushion the disruption. Oil prices have been on the decline for the last month anyway, as global demand for energy seems to be dropping as a result of the economic slowdown.

Put all those things together and you get falling oil prices. Crude oil for October delivery fell Wednesday to less than $109 a barrel. The price topped out above $145 a barrel about six weeks ago. To the extent that lower oil prices are expected to cool inflation, long-term mortgage rates fall.

Volatility calming

In the last couple of weeks, there’s been a remarkable change in the mortgage market: Rates aren’t swinging up and down as much as they had for most of this year. Especially in the spring, it wasn’t uncommon for rates to bounce like an airplane in a thunderstorm. They sometimes moved a quarter of a percentage point in just a few minutes. In business lingo, rates were volatile.

Rates have been calmer for the last week and a half, so fewer borrowers have been receiving urgent phone calls from their mortgage brokers, urging them to lock immediately before rates bounce back up.

A couple of things are going on, explains Barry Habib, publisher of the Mortgage Market Guide, an online information service for people in the industry. First, stock volatility has diminished, too. That reduces surges of money into and out of the bond market that underlies the mortgage market.

Second, Habib says, overall inflation seems to be rising, while oil prices have been falling. “So you have factors that are almost canceling each other out.”

For his part, Habib predicts that mortgage rates will continue to fall. This time he believes the trigger will be the August employment report, which will be released Friday morning. Habib doesn’t expect good news.

For the full story click on the link below.

Rates fall for third week

Rate Trend Index

This week (Sept. 4 - Sept. 10) the experts say: Rates might rise.

Last week, the panelists were almost evenly split. A little over one-third believed mortgage rates would rise over the next 35 to 45 days, and a little over a third believed they will remain relatively unchanged. Almost one-third though rates will fall. This week, a little over half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Almost 30 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Panel:
Up: 53% Down: 29% Unchanged: 18%

A strengthening U.S. dollar leads mortgage rates lower.
Down Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati .

Technical factors point toward the possibility of higher rates. So does my sense that inflation and economic activity are running a bit faster than most people suspect.
Up Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com

To see the experts’ comments click on the link below.

Rate Trend Index

Have a great weekend!

Melinda Potcher, Mortgage Maven. http://www.HomeLoansAlbuquerque.com, (505) 259-6397, email: melinda@trinitymtg.biz

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Rockferry
By Duffy
Release date: 2008-05-13

> From: Representative Heather Wilson[SMTP:NM01IMA@MAIL.HOUSE.GOV]
> Sent: Monday, August 25, 2008 7:19:28 AM
> To: Potcher, Melinda
> Subject: A reply from Heather Wilson
> Auto forwarded by a Rule
>

Dear Melinda,

Thank you for contacting me about the down payment assistance provisions in the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (H.R. 3221 ). I appreciate hearing from you.

The down payment assistance provisions were originally in the House version of this bill. However when the bill moved over to the Senate, this provision was opposed and was dropped. There also was an indication that the White House did not approve of continuing the down payment assistance program. The Chairman of the Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank, ultimately decided to defer to the Senate on this issue and leave the provision out of the bill in order to ensure final passage of housing legislation in Congress. H.R. 3221 passed the House by a vote of 272 to 152 on July 23, 2008 , without my support. The bill ultimately passed the Senate and President Bush signed the bill into law on July 30, 2008.

I am unaware of any other bills that have been introduced in the 110 th Congress that would restore down payment assistance to our housing programs. Any such legislation would likely be referred to the House Committee on Financial Services. I am not a member of this committee, but I will keep your thoughts in mind should any legislation pertaining to that purpose reach the floor of the House for a vote.

Again, thank you for contacting me. Please continue to contact me about issues that are important to you. While I commute from my home in Albuquerque to Washington D.C. , for voting and committee hearings, you can always check my web site for upcoming community events to find where you can catch me around town.

Sincerely,

Heather Wilson

Member of Congress